Portfolio.com ran this neat little article way back in the middle of September, but it seems to have slipped by many of us. The article applies John McCain’s data and applies that to the Social Security Administration’s mortality table to come up with the odds that John McCain would die in his first term of office. The number they come up with is between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7, or about 15%. For the benefit of those who don’t play cards or habitually watch the weather channel (Only a 30% chance of rain? Screw the umbrella.), Portfolio came up with a list of everyday probabilities to compare the likelihood of a President Palin to. Here are some of my personal favorites:
- On your next try, pulling a red M&M out of the bag.
- Escaping jail in Monopoly by rolling a double.
- That a hurricane hits Louisiana in any given year.
- That, during a full inning of a Major League Baseball game, one of the teams hits a home run.
- Twice as likely as a rainy day in Los Angeles
- Eight times more likely than being waited on by a redhead.
The last one is particularly scary for those of us who tend to dine at pubs (where I swear red heads get preferential hiring and treatment). However, I think that the odds stated by Portfolio are just a little high, given the huge bonus that is Presidential health care. I’d say 6% max, but I couldn’t find any nifty odds to make that one sound scary.
